MODELING OF PROBABILITY OF OSTEOPENIC SYNDROME IN PATIENTS WITH MULTIFOCAL ATHEROSCLEROSIS

Aim. To evaluate the effectiveness of the mathematical model for determining the probability of osteopenic syndrome in patients with multifocal atherosclerosis.

Materials and methods. The study included 251 male patients with verified atherosclerosis of the coronary and carotid arteries. The average age of the patients was 60,56±8,7 years. All patients included in the study performed multispiral computed tomography of coronary and carotid arteries with a quantitative evaluation of calcification by the method of Agatston (calcium index and equivalent weight of calcium deposits), color duplex scanning of carotid arteries, densitometry. The obtained data were used to calculate the probability of having an osteopenic syndrome (р) using a mathematical model. Criterion for the risk of osteopenic syndrome in the patient is the value р>0,688. The results of the analysis were compared with the densitometry data chosen as the reference method.

Results. According to the quantitative assessment of coronary artery calcification in patients with osteopenia and osteoporosis, significantly higher values of the calcium index and equivalent weight of calcium deposits were observed than in patients with normal bone mineral density. Regardless of the presence of bone mineralization, more than half of the respondents (66,7% of patients with normal bone mineral density and 59,6% of patients with osteopenic syndrome) had coronary artery stenoses up to 50%. Calcification and presence of stenosis more than 30% of carotid arteries prevailed in the group of patients with osteopenic syndrome. The results of calculating the probability of having an osteopenic syndrome using a mathematical model indicate that it is highly prevalent in the sample (69,3%) and does not differ significantly from the densitometry data (70,1%). The sensitivity of the mathematical model was 89,8%, the specificity was 78,7%, the prognostic value of the positive result was 90,8%, the prognostic value of the negative result was 76,6%.

Conclusion. The mathematical model for assessing the probability of osteopenic syndrome is highly diagnostic in men with multifocal atherosclerosis. 

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